Israel’s Potential Full Occupation of Gaza
Reports suggest that Israel is preparing to launch a full-scale operation to occupy the entirety of Gaza, with the Israeli security cabinet expected to approve the escalation plan soon. The goal of this operation, according to Israeli media, is to destroy Hamas and force it to release the remaining hostages. The military plans to enter the 25% of Gaza that it does not currently control, including areas where hostages are being held.
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The chief of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), Lt Gen Eyal Zamir, stated, “Whatever the political echelon decides, we will execute.” This comes after Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005, removing troops and settlements but maintaining control over the Strip through a blockade. The United Nations, British Government, and human rights organizations consider that Israel has been occupying Gaza since 1967.
Experts believe that the plan, which is reportedly opposed by parts of the Israeli military, could lead to more displacement and starvation. It may also involve the imposition of Israeli settlers in the region. A full occupation would likely result in relocations, limited aid, and increased risk for hostages.
Strategic Objectives and Humanitarian Concerns
Security sources told the Israeli broadcaster Kan that the target of the plan was to “push the Gazan population southward, to Mawasi [on the coast] in a relatively short time.” Channel 12 reported that the plan would begin with the conquest of Gaza City and the forcible expulsion of its population, with the US expected to assist in providing humanitarian logistics and temporary civilian infrastructure.
The estimated timeline for ground forces to fully invade and hold Gaza City and central areas is five months. Dr Ahron Bregman, an academic at King’s College London (KCL) who served in the Israeli army, said a full occupation would likely take several months and involve further displacement of people. Around 90% of Gaza’s population has already been displaced, according to the UN.
Dr Bregman suggested that the comments were posturing designed to pressure Hamas during ongoing peace talks, and that Israel might prioritize local operations rather than full occupation. However, Dr Robert Geist Pinfold, an international security lecturer at KCL, warned that the plan could lead to further deaths from starvation. Children have been among those who have died from starvation in Gaza, with hospitals treating 20,000 children for acute malnutrition since April.
Impact on Hostages and Aid
Israel imposed a total blockade of aid deliveries to Gaza in early March before resuming attacks on the Strip, ending a two-month ceasefire with Hamas. Although the blockade was partially eased two months later, the UN’s humanitarian chief described it as still insufficient. Expanding Israel’s occupation would mean more Gazans in even less territory, potentially leading to more deaths from starvation and malnutrition.
Further operations would also put the remaining living hostages—believed to be around 20—at risk. The IDF has not occupied the two-thirds of the territory envisioned in Gidon’s Chariots because there is no operational need or benefit, and it would endanger the hostages who could die from ‘friendly fire’ or be killed by their captors when Israeli troops are nearby.
Long-Term Occupation and Political Pressures
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces pressure from extremist politicians to turn temporary occupation into a long-term reality. As the 20-year anniversary of Israel’s disengagement from Gaza approaches, the settlement movement seeks to reverse the decision. Far-right Israeli politicians, including finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, have called for Palestinians to be displaced to allow for the resettlement of Israel in Gaza.
A group of far-right politicians and settlers discussed a plan called “The master plan for settlement in the Gaza Strip” last month. Smotrich recently said that the idea of Israeli settlers returning to Gaza is now a real working plan. Professor Yossi Mekelberg, senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, said the new plan could mark the start of the most extreme version of Israeli war aims in Gaza, influenced by ultranationalists, involving occupying Gaza, rebuilding it, and possibly expelling hundreds of thousands of people.
Military Opposition and International Reactions
Bregman noted strong opposition within the Israeli military to a full occupation, led by Eyal Zamir, due to risks to hostages and the exhaustion of military resources. The military is exhausted in both equipment and soldiers, requiring additional divisions to occupy the remaining 25% of Gaza. Public opinion in Israel favors ending the war, making further operations politically difficult.
Dr Burcu Ozcelik, a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London, said a full-scale occupation would mark the beginning of a bleak and highly volatile new phase of the war with far-reaching regional and international implications. She suggested the plan might respond to European plans to recognize a Palestinian state and the failure to agree on a ceasefire with Hamas.
Conclusion
The potential full occupation of Gaza raises significant concerns about humanitarian crises, international relations, and long-term geopolitical consequences. As the situation evolves, the impact on civilians, the risk to hostages, and the global response remain critical factors to monitor.
