U.S. Tariff Measures and Their Impact on India
The United States has implemented a significant tariff measure targeting Indian imports, with an additional 25% duty added to the existing 25% tariff. This decision is reportedly linked to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil. The move has sparked considerable concern in New Delhi, where Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces pressure from both domestic opposition parties and the general public to challenge what many view as an act of bullying by the U.S. administration.
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Analysts warn that this latest development could undermine two decades of diplomatic progress between the two nations. It risks straining other areas of cooperation as political pressures intensify on both sides. Despite India’s emergence as a strategic partner for the U.S. in its rivalry with China, the country’s large trade surplus with the U.S. and its close ties with Russia have made it a target for Trump’s broader tariff strategy.
India has been particularly critical of the U.S. stance, highlighting what it sees as double standards. The Indian government has accused the U.S. of hypocrisy, noting that while it targets India for its Russian oil imports, it continues to purchase Russian uranium hexafluoride, palladium, and fertilizers. In response, India has called the tariffs “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable,” vowing to take all necessary actions to protect its national interests.
However, New Delhi is aware that escalating tensions could have broader implications beyond trade. Unlike China, which holds leverage through rare earth supplies, India lacks similar bargaining power to influence U.S. trade policies. This makes the situation more delicate for India as it navigates these challenges.
Historical Context and Strategic Rivalries
Over the years, successive U.S. administrations have worked to strengthen relations with India, recognizing its importance in countering China’s growing influence. However, recent moves by the Trump administration have led to a deterioration in the relationship, potentially bringing it to its worst state since the U.S. imposed sanctions on India following its nuclear tests in 1998.
Experts like Ashley Tellis from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace suggest that India is caught in a difficult position. While it may need to reduce its oil purchases from Russia due to U.S. pressure, it cannot openly admit to doing so without appearing to capitulate to Trump’s demands. This situation could lead to a needless crisis that erodes the progress made over the past 25 years.
Recent reports indicate that Indian state refiners have begun to stop buying Russian oil as discounts narrow and pressure from the U.S. mounts. This shift highlights the immediate impact of the tariff measures on India’s energy sector.
Challenges in Bilateral Relations
A pressing challenge for India lies in the divergence between its priorities and those of the Trump administration’s political base. Key issues such as work visas for tech professionals and offshoring of services have become contentious. India has long benefited from U.S. work visa programs and the outsourcing of software and business services, which have raised concerns among American workers who feel they have lost jobs to cheaper labor in India.
Former State Department official Evan Feigenbaum warned that issues involving India are becoming increasingly partisan and explosive in Washington. Topics such as immigration, H1B visas, offshoring, and technology sharing have become central to political debates, making India a focal point of domestic politics.
Despite the challenges, the U.S.-India relationship has seen significant developments, including intelligence sharing, defense cooperation, and expanded interactions through the Quad grouping. However, fractures have emerged, particularly after events such as the deportation of Indians by the U.S. on military planes, which caused widespread outrage in India.
Navigating the Future
In response to the growing tensions, one Indian government source suggests that India must gradually repair its ties with the U.S. while engaging more with other nations affected by Trump’s policies, such as members of the African Union and the BRICS bloc. This includes strengthening relationships with Russia and China.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit New Delhi this year, with discussions focused on deepening defense cooperation. Meanwhile, India has also increased engagement with China, marking a shift after years of tension following a border clash in 2020. Modi is set to visit China soon, his first trip since 2018.
Analysts believe that Russia may attempt to exploit the rift between the U.S. and India, proposing the restoration of a trilateral partnership with China. However, India will need to carefully navigate these dynamics, considering the sanctions against Russia and seeking a compromise with the Trump administration.
As India seeks to balance its relationships with major global powers, the path forward remains complex and challenging.
